Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to garner 4.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 73.8%.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).

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