Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.9% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the lofty 85th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 34.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki has been in the 79th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 25.8 figure this year.
Mike Gesicki's 80.0% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 70.5% mark.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Jaguars pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.32 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.