Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-105/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the towering 85th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 34.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki's 10.7 adjusted yards per target this year represents a noteworthy boost in his receiving skills over last year's 7.4 rate.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.17 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in the league.