Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Mike Gesicki has compiled a staggering 34.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's 71.1% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 66.3% mark.

Favors Under

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's 6.4 adjusted yards per target this year shows a a material reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 8.4 figure.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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