Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
Mike Gesicki's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this season, totaling 9.21 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this year (60.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
Mike Gesicki has compiled far fewer air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Mike Gesicki has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).

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