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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
  • Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
  • Mike Gesicki's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this season, totaling 9.21 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 mark last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this year (60.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
  • Mike Gesicki has compiled far fewer air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
  • The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Mike Gesicki has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).

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