Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Mike Gesicki has notched a monstrous 53.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki has been among the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 40.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be much less involved in his team's passing offense this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the worst TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 6th percentile.