Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+346/-667).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +384 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +346.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Gesicki's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 90.6%.
Mike Gesicki grades out in the 77th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.
The New York Jets safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has posted far fewer air yards this year (18.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Mike Gesicki's 14.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 42.4.

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