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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-476).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -451 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -476.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.

Mike Gesicki has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

Mike Gesicki's 38.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (63.2%) to TEs since the start of last season (63.2%).

The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the NFL to tight ends: 0.16 per game since the start of last season.

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