Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Mike Evans is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.4 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily used in his offense's passing game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.