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Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+106/-136).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -136.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to total 6.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.Mike Evans's 56.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for WRs.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.Mike Evans has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.Mike Evans has been among the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in a mere 61.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
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