Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans's 68.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 55.0.
With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Mike Evans rates as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.

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