Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Buccaneers rank as the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Mike Evans has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing just 61.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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