Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+145/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to total 9.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
Mike Evans's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 46.9.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.