Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Mike Evans has run a route on 89.0% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to total 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.