Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to earn 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

Mike Evans's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 62.6%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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