Mike Evans Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to notch 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Evans's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 61.0%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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