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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to accrue 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.

Mike Evans's 55.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 46.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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