Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Mike Evans has played on 81.4% of his offense's snaps this year, putting him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to accrue 7.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Mike Evans has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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