Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+119/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Mike Evans's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.3% to 73.5%.
Mike Evans ranks in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.60 per game.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Mike Evans has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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