Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+137/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (23.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.7% in games he has played).
Mike Evans has accrued a monstrous 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 0.78 per game since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a measly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.