Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.3% this year, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Mike Evans has accumulated many more air yards this season (116.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Evans's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 61.0%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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