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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Mike Evans has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Mike Evans has notched many more air yards this season (116.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.
  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the 8th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.67 per game this year.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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