Michael Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-213).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cardinals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.5% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.87 seconds per snap.
Michael Wilson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Wilson has posted a monstrous 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Wilson's 67.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 54.7.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier weather this week.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.10 per game) against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season.

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