Michael Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-322).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -322.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.2 plays per game.
Michael Wilson has accrued a massive 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts.
Michael Wilson's 54.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 81st percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are expected by the projections to run just 61.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to expect some regression with windier weather this week.
The Arizona O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.