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Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals

Michael Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Michael Wilson has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in an exceptional 83.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.

The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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