Michael Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Michael Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With a top-tier 80.9% snap rate (80th percentile) this year, Michael Wilson rates as one of the RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been very good this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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