Michael Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:27 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cardinals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.5% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.87 seconds per snap.
Michael Wilson's 97.0% Route Participation Rate this year represents a noteworthy progression in his pass attack utilization over last year's 84.8% figure.
The model projects Michael Wilson to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Michael Wilson has posted a monstrous 90.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier weather this week.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Michael Wilson's 6.7 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a material drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 8.1 mark.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.