Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are expected by the projections to run 67.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 66.4 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Michael Thomas to garner 7.4 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.

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