Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Michael Thomas to earn 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Thomas's 51.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 43.9.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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