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Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among WRs.Michael Thomas has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among WRs.The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (68.5%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.Opposing QBs have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
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