Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+133/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to notch 6.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Thomas has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 21.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (72.1%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.1%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.