Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to earn 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Thomas has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 20.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.2%).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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