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Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to accumulate 7.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.

The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).

The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks profile as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.

The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

More Michael Thomas Player Props

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