Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
With an exceptional 87.6% Route Participation% (80th percentile) this year, Michael Thomas has been among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
In this week's contest, Michael Thomas is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 76th percentile among WRs with 6.9 targets.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

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