Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 19, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
With a poor 1.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (14th percentile) this year, Michael Thomas ranks among the best WRs in the game in football in picking up extra yardage.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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