Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 62.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the New Orleans Saints to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this contest, Michael Thomas is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.5 targets.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Michael Thomas has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 1.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 15th percentile.
This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has yielded the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a meager 7.5 yards.
The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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