Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to accumulate 7.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks profile as the 10th-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Michael Thomas has been among the bottom WRs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 1.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 11th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 127.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.