Michael Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-306).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -268 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -306.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (69.7%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (69.7%).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.12 per game since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.