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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Colts.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Michael Pittman has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this season (22.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (31.6%).

Michael Pittman's play as a receiver has worsened this season, totaling just 3.5 adjusted catches compared to 6.7 last season.

Michael Pittman's 56.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a substantial reduction in his pass-catching talent over last year's 71.7% rate.

The Minnesota Vikings linebackers grade out as the 5th-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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