Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The predictive model expects Michael Pittman to accrue 9.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Colts.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (44.1%) vs. WRs this year (44.1%).
The Browns safeties project as the 8th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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