Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-162/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accrue 8.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Michael Pittman's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 70.4% to 76.9%.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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