Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+129/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +143 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Michael Pittman has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
Michael Pittman has totaled a colossal 76.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman's 59.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 90th percentile for wide receivers.
Michael Pittman's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 70.4% to 76.9%.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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