Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (24.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Michael Pittman has totaled far fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) to WRs this year (58.4%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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