Michael Mayer Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Mayer

NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Mayer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-441).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Raiders to be the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.00 seconds per play.
The model projects Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.0% in games he has played).
Michael Mayer has compiled significantly more air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).

Favors Under

As it relates to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
The Patriots defense has given up the fewest receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Patriots linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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