Michael Mayer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Michael Mayer

NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
The Patriots defensive ends rank as the 5th-worst DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
Michael Mayer profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching just 55.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 14th percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (68.4%).

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