Michael Mayer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Michael Mayer

NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
The Chargers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
Michael Mayer has been on the field for 62.9% of his offense's snaps this year, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
The Las Vegas O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
This year, the weak Chargers pass defense has surrendered a massive 78.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 55.7% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.5 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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