Michael Mayer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Michael Mayer

NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
In this week's game, Michael Mayer is forecasted by the model to place in the 75th percentile among TEs with 3.9 targets.
The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
This year, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a monstrous 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (55.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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