Michael Mayer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Mayer

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Mayer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
In this game, Michael Mayer is anticipated by our trusted projection set to place in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.

Favors Under

The Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
Michael Mayer's 84.1% Snap% this year illustrates a substantial gain in his offensive utilization over last year's 59.9% rate.
The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Michael Mayer grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging just 5.90 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-best in football.