Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Michael Gallup's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 54.2% to 60.1%.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.
Michael Gallup has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (63.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.0%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Seattle's group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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