Michael Gallup Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Michael Gallup

NFL · Player Props

Michael Gallup

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Michael Gallup Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Gallup to earn 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Michael Gallup's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 75th percentile for WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Michael Gallup's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 60.3% to 56.0%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) versus WRs this year (63.5%).

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